Oxygen (obviously), then, according to Maslow: water, food, shelter (warmth), safety, followed by love and companionship, then esteem, and finally fulfillment.
Climate change most directly threatens the sufficiency of our water and food supply systems. Changing precipitation patterns, drought, and salinization of coastal aquifers will decrease fresh water availability. Increased heat, drought, invasive pests, disease, and a decline in pollinators will lower crop yields. Acidification of coral reefs will harm ocean fisheries.
Shaken at its foundation, the pyramid theory portends that food and water insecurity lead to social upheaval, threatening our safety. This will, in turn, diminish our ability to find belonging and lower our chances of finding esteem and fulfillment.
If, however, you act to reduce physiological and safety risks, then you increase odds of fulfilling higher order needs.
In a more challenged world, esteem and accomplishment might be achieved simply through providing foundational food, water, shelter, and security for your family and community: When food and water become scarce, then influence and prestige flow to the investors and landowners that control supply. Safety may be purchased through the rent (in this case, both through economic rent and colloquial rent), and then esteem and accomplishment can be reached.
Depending on how bad things get, maybe we’ll even see a return to a time when a voluptuous curves and a full belly were status symbols.